Why this Timeline?

The world is moving from a US dollar unipolar economy to a multipolar Multicurrency Mercantilism.

Multicurrency Mercantilism emerges as nations and non-state actors agree to cooperate and trade in alternative currencies bilaterally, regionally, or multilaterally. 

The transition is gradual and event-led. It is not subject to the direction of any one nation, institution, treaty, or monetary authority. 

This Timeline tracks events leading to a  multipolar global economy. 

We won't get everything right. We welcome your feedback to make the Timeline a better tool.

Gazprombank: USD payments cut off

Despite being exempt from sanctions, the two New York banks that service Gazprombank client payments in US dollar will reject payments from Friday. Clients will have to pay in alternative currencies elsewhere.

Bank of Canada hikes 25bps, to 4.5%, signals pause

Bank of Canada became the first major central bank to slow hikes and signal a pause for evaluation of effects of 4.5% base rate.

Gold hits record high in JPY as bonds continue unstable

Gold hit an all time high in Japanese yen while bonds experienced extremes of volatility.

Lagos light rail built by China opens

Lagos Rail Mass Transit is West Africa's first electric light rail. It will boost the Lagos economy, reduce congestion and pollution.

Next day saw the opening of Nigeria's first deep sea port, infrastructure financed by China. Notice a pattern here?

Meanwhile Western oil companies have been winding down operations and the US imposed additional visa restrictions on Nigerians.

33 LatAm & Caribbean states demand end to US embargo on Cuba

A unanimous vote of 33 states against US unilateral sanctions and embargo that were first imposed in 1959.

Russia negotiating visa-free travel with 12 countries, including Mexico

Isolation of Russia isn't going very well as 12 states negotiate visa-free travel: Oman, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Mexico, Malaysia, and Caribbean Island states

Bolivia chooses CATL for lithium development

Lithium is the new oil. Bolivia chooses Chinese firm CATL for development of its vas lithium resources and domestic processing for export.

Burkino Faso asks French troops to leave

One measure of a New International Economic Order will be reduction of foreign military bases and sponsored terrorism. 

Mali and Burkina Faso have asked French foreign troops to leave so they can assume direct responsibility for security.

Turkiye will hold elections 14 May

Turkiye was pivotal to global diplomacy in 2022, and the elections could stabilise Erdogan's rule for events to come.

Germany & France urge business investments

Belatedly realising risk of de-industrialisation of Europe, Scholtz and Macron meet as US Inflation Reduction Act sends delegations of US states to poach EU industries to relocate.

Japan record trade deficit

Japan has the world's largest debt-to-GDP ratio, large fiscal deficits, falling population, and now a record trade deficit for 2022 due to energy costs.

US DoJ to transfer expropriated Russian assets to Ukraine

Head of US Department of Justice asset forfeiture task force (read expropriation) says 'poised' to transfer Russian assets to Kiev, with hopes others will use as precedent. 

Saudi affirms normalisation with Israel requires 2-state solution

Saudis insist on a state of Palestine under the two-state solution before normalising relations with Israel. PM Netanyahu had said earlier in the day that Israel was prepared to normalise relations with Saudi.

Netherlands and Japan bow to US chips pressure

Netherlands and Japan bow to US pressure to curb chip equipment to China.

Germany rejects tanks for Ukraine, fracturing coalition

Germany's refusal to send to tanks to Ukraine before the US has done so has caused a rift, with Poland seeking smaller coalition to proceed without Germany.

Turkiye cancels Swedish DM visit

After a pattern of anti-Turkiye incidents tolerated in Sweden, including a hanging of PM Erdogan in effigy and a right-wing Quran burning in front of the Turkish Embassy, the Turks have cancelled an invitation to the Swedish defence minister for this week.

New Zealand PM

A few days after the shock resignation of Jacinda Ardern, her replacement is confirmed as Chris Hipkins.

NZ PM Ardern surprise resignation

Without giving specific reasons, Jacinta Ardern will step down as New Zealand prime minister next month.

UAE host COP28 aims at breakthrough

UAE hosting COP 28 could united interests of global North and South.

Governor Njoroge: Kenya could grow 6.2% in 2023

Africa has the potential to be a big winner from Multicurrency Mercantilism if it builds on infrastructure and logistics advances with domestic processing of mineral and agriculture output.

China FM: Israel should stop provocations in Palestine & FM spokesman: US must stop 'banditry' in Syria

Foreign Minister Qin Gang, on first foreign tour, says Israel should stop provocations in Palestine, described as 'the core of the Middle East situation'. This follows President Xi's speech in Riyadh supporting Palestinian statehood, 1967 borders, and UN membership.

Powerful statement against US 'banditry' in Syria at China's Foreign Ministry press briefing.

Spokesman Wang Wenbin: "We are struck by the blatancy of US plundering in Syria. . . Such banditry is aggravating the energy crisis and humanitarian disaster in Syria. . . Whether the US gives or takes, it plunges the world into turmoil and disaster, and the US reaps the benefits for its hegemony and other interests. . . We urge the US to stop trampling on international rule of law and breaking international rules."

UK 'fiscally unstable', un-investable, says oil CEO

Depressing confirmation that the UK has rended itself 'uninvestable' - a word used by Citibank during the autumn turmoil. North Sea oil CEO in Davos says fiscal instability and uncertain policies mean no long term investment in UK is supportable.

US hits debt ceiling (again)

The US once more enters the charade of operating a government while insolvent. Treasury begins extraordinary measures.

EU sanctions Iran IGRC and wants war crimes tribunal for Russia

Today EU Parliament called for listing IGRC of Iran as terrorists and Ursula von der Leyen vowed a war crimes tribunal for Russia. Foreign Ministers meeting later did not blacklist IGRC. Theatrics, but will solidify Iran's cooperation with Russia and China and undermine ongoing JPCOA negotiations.

Pakistan PM seeks India talks

PM Sharif of Pakistan seeks direct talks with India to address long-standing issues.

Saudi will sell oil in other currencies than dollar

At Davos the Saudi finance minister confirms they are open to selling oil for currencies other than US dollar, breaking the petrodollar monopoly for Saudi that has existed since the 1974 secret agreement between Kissinger and King Fahd.

Ghana buys oil for $40 million in gold

Gold is gaining as a hegemonic asset for global settlements, a role it held for millennia until the Bretton Woods Treaty of 1944 made the US dollar a gold-linked hegemonic currency.

TSX objects Canada's mine divestment order against Chinese owners

Listings could move away from Toronto for discriminatory treatment of Chinese shareholders.

Chinese Naval Base in Argentina

Having signed cooperation and central bank swap agreements a week ago, it is now reported China will build a naval base (only its second outside its own geography) in Argentina.

Alibaba and Tencent 'Golden Shares'

Golden Shares usually come with a board seat and special voting rights, but can also ease regulatory hurdles and promote stability.

Japan-UK Reciprocal Access Agreement & FM Qin Gang Africa Tour

Japan and UK signed an agreement that allows each to deploy troops on the other's territory. The last time UK and Japan signed a similar agreement in 1902 it emboldened Japan to attack Russia and invade and occupy China.

Meanwhile new Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, formerly ambassador to the US, starts on a 5 nation Africa tour by opening a new pan-African health facility and urging that Africa should not be an arena for great powers rivalry.

China-Argentina swap line & Alibaba to build data & logistics hub in Ankara

China has more bilateral currency swap arrangements than any other nation, and today adds Argentina.

Almost as significant, tech giant Alibaba will build a data and logistics hub near Ankara airport. Alibaba is a giant of Chinese global mercantilism, streamlining supply chains and finance for businesses all over the world.

2nd monthly announcement of increased Chinese Gold reserves & historic 2022 underperformance of US Treasuries

1st Chevron shipment of Venezuelan oil under embargo license head for US refineries

Following a rapprochement between US John Kerry and Venezuelan President Maduro at the COP27 Summit, US granted an exemption from the embargo for Chevron to ship oil from Venezuela for the first time in four years. Proceeds will pay back debt arrears.

China-Philippines sign 14 cooperation agreements and President Marcos will 'increase, strengthen and deepen that relationship between our 2 countries.'

Russia-Iran transport route will bypass Europe and Mediterranean shipping lanes

$20 billion invested in canal and rail networks will shorten supply lines to Asia and make Western trade sanctions irrelevant.

Kenya-Brazil bilateral oil trade

Bank of Japan signals tightening, Yen surges, risk of destabilising global asset reallocations

Japan has been the biggest seller of US Treasuries in 2022, reducing its holdings by $242.2 billion in the year to end-October. Bank of Japan surprised global markets by raising the yield on 10 year JGBs. This led to a surge in Yen, and may spur further repatriation flows from US and European bond markets.

BLOOMBERG: Japan is the world’s largest creditor, and tightening domestic financial conditions may result in a wave of capital returning home. That threatens to push down asset prices and boost global borrowing costs at a time when the economic outlook around the globe is deteriorating. 

Japanese money managers have more than $3 trillion invested in overseas stocks and bonds, with over half of that stashed in the US. Other countries such as the Netherlands, Australia and France are also vulnerable to possible Japanese fund repatriation, according to Bloomberg data. 

UN passes resolution "Towards A New International Economic Order"

The Assembly adopted the resolution “Towards a New International Economic Order” by a recorded vote of 123 in favour to 50 against with 1 abstention (Türkiye).  By its terms, the Assembly expressed concern over the increasing debt vulnerabilities of developing countries, the net negative capital flows from those countries, the fluctuation of exchange rates and the tightening of global financial conditions, and in this regard stressed the need to explore the means and instruments needed to achieve debt sustainability and the measures necessary to reduce the indebtedness of developing States.

Effectively, the votes For and Against are 'the Rest vs the West' with Turkiye abstaining.

China files case with WTO against US semiconductor and technology embargo

The filing with WTO requests consultation, and if consultation does not resolve the dispute, China can request a panel determination on whether the US embargo - aimed explicitly at slowing China's growth as a matter of 'national security' - violates trade obligations. The chip war from the US is global as it implicates exports from Korea, Taiwan, Netherlands, and others. In a test of the 'rules based order' the US and allies claim to defend, China likely gains in the realm of global perception by calling for compliance with the rules.

India-UAE to settle trade in rupee and dirham

India and UAE are working toward bilateral trade settlements in rupee and dirham from January 2023.

China-Saudi Summit in Riyadh

President Xi was welcomed by King Salman of Saudi Arabia and other senior royals in a lavish show of Saudi-Chinese solidarity.

China resumes report of Gold reserves & China-Cuba bilateral cooperation

China announced an increase of 32 tons from the month prior, but this is the first announcement for more than 3 years. The announcement itself is more important than the amount of incremental gold, as the announcement signals an intention to communicate building of Chinese official gold reserves to the world.

President Xi received President Miguel Diaz-Canel in Beijing. Following the summit, bilateral cooperation intensified:

• Restructuring of Cuban debt;
• $100 million aid for food shortages;
• Increased trade and investment;
• Wind and solar power projects.

US decoupling from China implies US decoupling from the world

Uber-diplomat Kishore Mahbubani expresses the dilemma clearly: As trade between the global South and East is multiples of US trade and growing more quickly, an attempt by the US to decouple with China implies the US decouples from the world.

Huawei patent for EUV lithography & WTO complaint against US chip embargo

Huawei patents a new chip technology which renders Western embargo on chip technology exports imposed by the US with allies Taiwan, Japan, and Netherlands less significant. China will soon have no dependence on Western chip technologies, while Western chip manufacturers decline after cutting off their largest client.

The patent supplements breakthrough research on better and cheaper production of sub-7nm chips at Fudan University without EUV lithography. 

German Chancellor Scholtz endorses the multipolar world

Commentary in Politico before travelling to Beijing: "No country is the “backyard” of another. What is true in Europe regarding Ukraine is also true in Asia, Africa or Latin America.
It is here that new centers of power are emerging in a multipolar world, and we aim to establish and expand partnerships with all of them."

XIV BRICS Summit

The leaders of the BRICS (Bolsonaro of Brazil, Putin of Russia, Modi of India, Xi of China, and Ramaphosa of South Africa) assembled virtually for the XIV BRICS Summit. The speeches support accelerating use of their own currencies for trade and finance while the infrastructure for a common currency and payments free of Western interference is negotiated. Each offered a positive vision for global cooperation in difficult times.

Kissinger: "We are now living in a totally new era"

In an interview with Edward Luce at the FT Weekend Festival, Henry Kissinger, who warned about mercantilism as a response to sanctions in 2014, stated, "We are now living in a totally new era."

Unfriendly countries must buy Russian gas with rubles from 1 April or lose contracts

President Putin signed an executive order requiring sanctioning states - designated as unfriendly countries - to pay for gas imports in the Russian ruble. Until then in crisis, the ruble strengthened to become the best performing currency of 2022, lowering inflation, and stabilising the Russian economy.

Prof Mahbubani challenges Anglo-American media narrative

At the conference Xi Jinping and China's Role in a Shifting World, Professor Kishore Mahbubani, former President of the United Nations Security Council and veteran Sinagporean diplomat, takes down a biased UK journalist. Point by point rebuts the anti-China spin on growth, education, repression, climate change, and rational action.

In 2019, 139 million Chinese travelled abroad, but zero defected. That is not repression.

New SDR Basket Includes Renminbi

As approved by the Executive Board of the IMF on November 30, 2015, effective October 1, 2016, the RMB is determined to be a freely usable currency and will be included in the SDR basket as a fifth currency, along with the U.S. dollar, the euro, Japanese yen, and the British pound ( see Press Release No. 15/543). The Board also decided at that time that the weights of each currency would be 41.73 percent for the U.S. dollar, 30.93 percent for the Euro, 10.92 percent for the Chinese yuan, 8.33 percent for the Japanese yen, and 8.09 percent for the Pound sterling.

China calls for a new global currency

From ABC News:
The world economic crisis shows the "inherent vulnerabilities and systemic risks in the existing international monetary system," Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan said in an essay released Monday by the [Peoples' Bank of China]. He recommended creating a currency made up of a basket of global currencies and controlled by the International Monetary Fund and said it would help "to achieve the objective of safeguarding global economic and financial stability." 

Zhou Xiaochuan, Reform the international monetary system, 23 March 2009