Angell Paradox III: Yachts aren't assets, they're liabilities - costly liabilities -

This continues the Angell Paradox series on Western sanctions blowback that can be summarised as, 'You loot, you lose'. It's shorter and sillier than I (impaired dollar hegemony) and II (securities markets destabilisation). ...

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Kathleen Tyson - March 8, 2022

Angell Paradox II: Western securities markets are destabilised by sanctions

Angell Paradox: You loot, you lose. The anti-Russia sanctions imposed by the West have torn up the fragile premise of non-discriminatory investor and financial legal protections, claims, and rights that supported global investment in Western...

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Kathleen Tyson - March 3, 2022

Angell Paradox: Zoltan Pozsar - "It's a turning point in monetary history."

"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen"--Vladimir Ilyich Lenin It should be obvious: official reserves are not 'safe assets' held in 'riskless' peer central bank custody if they can be seized and/or...

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Kathleen Tyson - March 1, 2022

Roubini predicts global Stagflation from Ukraine conflict

Nouriel Roubini sees interdependencies in the global macroeconomy very clearly. He is often well ahead of the pack in identifying key vulnerabilities. Today he is warning the conflict in Ukraine will lead to global stagflation from a sharp...

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Kathleen Tyson - January 7, 2022

FRBNY Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

Staff at my old employer, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, have innovated a new index to monitor global supply chain pressure, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index or GSCPI. It is useful, but is very US and G6 focussed, so not very relevant...

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Kathleen Tyson - December 22, 2021

The Log4j Zero-day Hack

UPDATE 11/11/22: Wired covers the latest in Log4Shell and the FTC's tone deaf threats of enforcement action against big and small businesses in the US if they do not take prompt corrective action. Interestingly, Starling Bank is highlighted as...

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Kathleen Tyson - December 1, 2021

The end of LIBOR could trigger another supply chain shock

OMFIF has just published my commentary on how supervisors may trigger the next inflationary supply chain shock by demanding banks stop using term LIBOR benchmarks in 2022 before most trade finance banks and corporates globally have systems and...

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Kathleen Tyson - November 12, 2021

'No Economy Is An Island' - but is the UK cast adrift?

A paper was published in the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin on the exposure of the UK economy to foreign shocks and market disruption: No economy is an island: how foreign shocks affect UK macrofinancial stability. It...

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Kathleen Tyson - October 26, 2021

Data-driven Central Banking

A leader in the Economist this week is calling for 'A real-time revolution in economics' to 'make the world better off'. Certainly better and more timely data is needed, and many central banks are experimenting with nowcasting, but whether we need...

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Kathleen Tyson - October 21, 2021

Inflation expectations are not what they used to be

UPDATE 29/10/21: Inflation notches a fresh 30-year high as measured by the Fed’s favorite gauge Inflation is like plumbing. Once you are forced to discuss it openly it is too late for preventative maintenance and you...

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