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Kathleen Tyson - April 6, 2022

Look for the helpers

With all the grim inflation and geopolitical news, I was minded today to look for the helpers. Even on the national level there are notable helpers - and good neighbours. India has provided a USD 2.5 billion line of credit to stabilise crisis-torn...

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Kathleen Tyson - March 30, 2022

Goodhart: "Stagflation is the most likely outcome in the coming years."

Professor Charles Goodhart, a Pacemaker Advisor, started warning about resurgent inflation four years ago when he was writing The Great Demographic Reversal with Manoj Pradhan. This week he is warning that stagflation...

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Kathleen Tyson - March 24, 2022

Angell Paradox IV: Transitioning to Bretton Woods III

On 7 March 2022, after Western governments froze the official reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Zoltan Poszar of Credit Suisse wrote that Bretton Woods III is now emerging. The new monetary order will be backed by Eastern...

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Kathleen Tyson - March 22, 2022

Both Russia and the USA offer 'a new world order'

President Biden concluded a speech to businessmen on Monday with the following statement: And now is a time when things are shifting. We’re going to — there’s going to be a new world order out there, and we’ve got to lead it. And we’ve got to...

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Kathleen Tyson - March 10, 2022

Angell Paradox III: Yachts aren't assets, they're liabilities - costly liabilities

This continues the Angell Paradox series on Western sanctions blowback that can be summarised as, 'You loot, you lose'. It's shorter and sillier than I (impaired dollar hegemony) and II (securities markets destabilisation). ...

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Kathleen Tyson - March 8, 2022

Angell Paradox II: Western securities markets are destabilised by sanctions

Angell Paradox: You loot, you lose. The anti-Russia sanctions imposed by the West have torn up the fragile premise of non-discriminatory investor and financial legal protections, claims, and rights that supported global investment in Western...

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Kathleen Tyson - March 3, 2022

Angell Paradox: Zoltan Pozsar - "It's a turning point in monetary history."

"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen"--Vladimir Ilyich Lenin It should be obvious: official reserves are not 'safe assets' held in 'riskless' peer central bank custody if they can be seized and/or...

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Kathleen Tyson - March 1, 2022

Roubini predicts global Stagflation from Ukraine conflict

Nouriel Roubini sees interdependencies in the global macroeconomy very clearly. He is often well ahead of the pack in identifying key vulnerabilities. Today he is warning the conflict in Ukraine will lead to global stagflation from a sharp...

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Kathleen Tyson - January 7, 2022

FRBNY Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

Staff at my old employer, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, have innovated a new index to monitor global supply chain pressure, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index or GSCPI. It is useful, but is very US and G6 focussed, so not very relevant...

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