This continues the Angell Paradox series on Western sanctions blowback that can be summarised as, 'You loot, you lose'. It's shorter and sillier than I (impaired dollar hegemony) and II (securities markets destabilisation). Perhaps...
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Angell Paradox: You loot, you lose. The anti-Russia sanctions imposed by the West have torn up the fragile premise of non-discriminatory investor and financial legal protections, claims, and rights that supported global investment in Western...
Read More"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen"--Vladimir Ilyich Lenin It should be obvious: official reserves are not 'safe assets' held in 'riskless' peer central bank custody if they can be seized...
Read MoreNouriel Roubini sees interdependencies in the global macroeconomy very clearly. He is often well ahead of the pack in identifying key vulnerabilities. Today he is warning the conflict in Ukraine will lead to global stagflation from a sharp...
Read MoreStaff at my old employer, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, have innovated a new index to monitor global supply chain pressure, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index or GSCPI. It is useful, but is very US and G6 focussed, so not very relevant...
Read MoreOMFIF has just published my commentary on how supervisors may trigger the next inflationary supply chain shock by demanding banks stop using term LIBOR benchmarks in 2022 before most trade finance banks and corporates globally have systems and...
Read MoreA paper was published in the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin on the exposure of the UK economy to foreign shocks and market disruption: No economy is an island: how foreign shocks affect UK macrofinancial stability. It...
Read MoreA leader in the Economist this week is calling for 'A real-time revolution in economics' to 'make the world better off'. Certainly better and more timely data is needed, and many central banks are experimenting with nowcasting, but whether we need...
Read MoreUPDATE 29/10/21: Inflation notches a fresh 30-year high as measured by the Fed’s favorite gauge Inflation is like plumbing. Once you are forced to discuss it openly it is too late for preventative maintenance and you...
Read MoreUPDATE 5/11/21: Kaisa shares have been suspended after it missed payment on 'wealth management products' that weren't disclosed to investors or acknowledged in its annual report. Fantasia missed interest and principal...
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